Debunking the Myth of Clayton Kershaw as a Choke Artist

The narrative is alive and well: Clayton Kershaw plays his worst when it matters most. Has he lived up to being the greatest pitcher of his generation, and potentially ever, in the postseason? Rarely. But has he been bad enough to keep perpetuating the belief that when October rolls around, he's always bound to choke? Hardly. There is a stark contrast between Kershaw's regular season and postseason numbers and there are a number of explanations for why that is.

However, the easy "he's a choke artist" or "he's just not clutch" narratives are far too simplistic. When you set the standard he has set in the regular season, almost nothing you do in the playoffs will be good enough. Winning a World Series in his third try starting this week would be a good start, though.

Kershaw's playoff numbers look worse than the bulk of his performances have actually been. He has a career playoff ERA of 4.31, but when you look a little deeper, those numbers have often been tied to the performance, or lack thereof, of the Dodger bullpen. Consistently, Kershaw is left in a few batters too long and is removed with men still on base. Also consistently, Dodger relievers allow those baserunners, who go on Kershaw's final stat line, to score.

Of the 85 earned runs Kershaw has allowed in his postseason career, 15 of them scored with another pitcher on the mound. Of course, the Dodger bullpen, and no bullpen for that matter, is perfect. But for the sake of illustrating the point, let's say none of those runs came into score, or better yet, Kershaw was removed at a more optimal time, before allowing those baserunners to reach. His postseason ERA would drop from 4.31 to 3.55.

Those who would argue that Kershaw chokes in the playoffs would also like you to believe that he's bad nearly every single start. In fact, over his 28 playoff starts, he has had 15 quality starts. More than half the time, he's been good to great. Of course, that doesn't live up to his otherworldly regular season standard, but it still illustrates the fact that Kershaw does not always crumble when the lights are brightest.

The best ammunition that Kershaw playoff attackers have are his numbers in potential closeout or elimination games: 49 innings pitched with a 4.41 ERA. However, those numbers aren't that far off from his overall playoff performance and those numbers are also fueled by a few extreme outlier performances.

Speaking of outlier performances, his career numbers against the Cardinals in the playoffs skew all of his postseason numbers in the wrong direction. With such a small sample size (about one season worth of starts) to rely on, a few really bad performances are going to change the numbers drastically. Over the course of four straight playoff starts in 2013 and 2014, Kershaw recorded a 7.15 ERA against the Cardinals.

There's no doubt those starts, one good, one decent, and two terrible, started the wheels in motion for the "Clayton Kershaw isn't clutch" crowd. Without his extreme outlier performances against the Cardinals, his playoff ERA would sit at 3.89. It's still not a mark that is up to the standard of regular season Kershaw, but little would be able to live up to that. When you factor in the fact he's facing the best of the best lineups in the postseason, it begins to make more sense. If we removed the runs his relievers gave up behind him, that figure would drop even lower.

There is no denying that Clayton Kershaw's numbers have been worse in the postseason than the regular season. But it's hard to believe the best pitcher of his generation, and possibly ever, will continue to struggle with even more playoff exposure. Eventually, water finds its level and it feels as though we're in for a couple vintage Kershaw performances this World Series. He gets to pitch in his native Texas with a chance to deliver the Dodgers their first title in 32 years. A performance that leads to that this October may very well begin to reverse the narrative on Kershaw, and in turn, help power the Dodgers to multiple titles in the coming years.