Expanding MLB Playoffs is Another Attempt to Drive Player Salaries Down

It is easy to understand MLB owners' desire for an expanded playoff field: more games and more TV deals = more money. So, aside from not getting enough other concessions in return, why are players generally against the arrangement? The explanation is much sneakier than it appears on the surface to the average baseball fan. With an expanded playoff field, the comparative value of each player is diminished.

MLB made the offer of a trade -- they get expanded playoffs and players get universal DH -- before holidays. Union recently rejected the offer. So far no counterproposal from union. Spring training is less than a month away but perhaps an outside chance they figure it out in time?-- Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman)January 25, 2021

MLB made the offer of a trade -- they get expanded playoffs and players get universal DH -- before holidays. Union recently rejected the offer. So far no counterproposal from union. Spring training is less than a month away but perhaps an outside chance they figure it out in time?

Instead of teams competing for five playoff spots, they are competing for eight. Those three extra spots, plus a best-of-three rather than one-game playoff, make a huge difference -- a five-team playoff model produces 26-45 playoff games while the eight-team model produces 42-65 games.

A difference-making free agent is a bigger difference-maker when he moves a team from sixth-best to fourth-best (let's just pretend these things are this easy to define). Going from sixth best to fourth-best is of little consequence when there are eight teams in the playoff field.

When there are only five, that change is the difference between making and missing the playoffsanda whole lot of money. Therefore, that free agent is worth more to a team and to an owner under a five-team playoff model than eight. The average player would make less money on the open market because their value to an individual team would be marginal.

Of course, there are specific cases where a team may pay fair or above fair market value in order to make a jump in the division: think the Mets trying to overtake the Braves in the NL East or the Padres trying to overtake the Dodgers in the NL West. But even in those cases, winning the division isn't as big of a deal in an eight-team playoff.

Sure, winning a division is nice, but just get into the playoff field and the owners have more money in their pockets and still have a fair chance to continue advancing. Expanded playoffs water down playoff races with mediocre teams jockeying for the final few spots and powerhouse clubs locking up spots in early September.

This is, of course, yet another way for owners to drive down the price they pay for their most precious labor: on-field talent. Owners and general managers have become especially aware of the luxury tax in recent years as it could now be more accurately described as a salary cap. With potentially zero teams entering the luxury tax threshold in 2021, it is acting as a deterrent strong enough to drive player salaries down.

The MLB playoffs featured 16 teams in 2020, but if anything, fans are more in favor of decreasing the number of playoff teams than expanding to 12 or more going forwardhttps://t.co/6pr0jKgrl2-- Pinstripe Alley (@pinstripealley)January 27, 2021

The MLB playoffs featured 16 teams in 2020, but if anything, fans are more in favor of decreasing the number of playoff teams than expanding to 12 or more going forwardhttps://t.co/6pr0jKgrl2

Of course, this is probably a sound business strategy in the midst of an unprecedented pandemic. But it further goes to show that when the owners have something go wrong, it's generally the players who pay for it. Having an expanded playoff in 2020 helped the owners, but it also helped players because they got increased playoff shares, and more importantly did not see their value diminished in the prior offseason. Since the expanded playoff came about spontaneously, it had no effect on players' market values. That will change if the expanded playoff field is here to stay.

The baseball regular season is a war of attrition. A 162-game marathon separates the strong from the weak and you know the teams that make the playoffs are the best of the best. That is true even with a five-team field where the No. 4 and 5 teams play each other in a Wild Card Game to narrow to the Divisional Series in each league. With eight teams, that marathon looks less and less appealing, as if the first eight runners that cross the finish line get participation trophies. But those trophies aren't made of gold. Those, of course, are reserved for the owners who always seem to get the last laugh.