NL Central Teams Ranked by Their Apathy Toward Winning in 2021
In the pandemic-shortened season this past summer, the National League Central managed to sneak four of its five teams into the postseason as a result of the expanded postseason format. Though the number of qualifiers for the 2021 MLB Postseason has yet to be determined--along with numerous other elements regarding the upcoming season--it seems probable that a similarly expanded format would need to exist in order for the division to snag even two playoff berths this season.
For 2021, the NL Central is shaping up as a race to the middle.
Throughout the division, teams have been declining options, non-tendering talent, and practicing patience at a breakneck pace. If there were an off-season highlight reel for remaining aggressively stagnant, the NL Central would receive plenty of screen-time for its collective performance so far this winter.
We decided to take on the task of ranking the NL Central teams according to how little they seem to care about establishing a competitive roster in 2021. Considering the fact that none among the group seem to be actively pursuing a championship this season, this could be a difficult exercise--to the most apathetic go the spoils!
5. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are shaping up as an unfortunate example of what happens when the team that 'wins the off-season' ultimately doesn't quite live up to the excitement generated by their aggressive push to contend.
Cincinnati's window for success in 2020 arguably opened when the Reds traded away Yasiel Puig with prospects Taylor Trammell and Scott Moss to land Trevor Bauer at the 2019 trade deadline. The move for a front-line starter under team control for another season seemed to indicate Cincy was ready to threaten for hardware in 2020. The Reds followed through that next off-season, spending decisively on Mike Moustakas, Nicholas Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, and Wade Miley to bolster the roster.
Their free-agent frenzy, combined with a Cy Young Award-winning effort from Bauer, only amounted to a 31-29 season. That was good enough for the 7-seed in NL Postseason thanks to the expanded playoffs, but the Reds were wiped from the bracket after being shutout in consecutive games in the Wild Card Series against the Braves. Ultimately, the Reds didn't make the kind of splash they imagined entering the season. Now, they're left to pick up the pieces of a roster in limbo.
Cincinnati opened its off-season by non-tendering Brian Goodwin, Archie Bradley, and Curt Casali--no earth-shattering departures there, but all were contributors. Bradley, in particular, was effective after arriving from Arizona during the season. But then the Reds went and jettisoned closer Raisel Iglesias via trade. They got reliever big-league Noe Ramirez in return, but he's not as good at pitching baseballs as Iglesias; the move was primarily designed to cut salary.
Beyond that, it's been a dormant winter for the Reds. Their most notable addition otherwise was either theoutfielder who hit .154this season or thepitcher whose ERA was 9.28.Take your pick, I guess.
I decided not to punish the Reds in the rankings, because it was always unlikely the small-market team would bring back Bauer through free agency. Though we've presented the notion of winning the off-season as a cautionary tale, fans certainly respond more favorably to some level of action compared to the largely idle winters being endured throughout the NL Central this year.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers opened their off-season by declining options on two of their three most productive hitters from the 2020 season. Ryan Braun and Jedd Gyorko combined to hit 17 of Milwaukee's 75 team home runs this past year, but neither are currently in the fold for the 2021 season.
That the Brewers opted to pay Gyorko a $1 million buyout instead of a $4.5 million salary for 2021 truly is indicative of the state of things, considering the infielder led Milwaukee in slugging percentage and OPS last season. The Braun decision, while more significant given the former MVP's history in Milwaukee, isn't necessarily as surprising. The 37-year-old Braun has never been an effective defender, and his bat declined from previous heights during the 60-game season. Though the Brewers had to pay Braun a hefty $4 million buyout, they'll save $11 million compared to the $15 million they would have owed him for 2021 under the mutual option.
Even if the Braun move was defensible, none of this penny-pinching will help the Brewers win games in 2021. In another minor cost-cutting move, the Brewers dealt struggling former closer Corey Knebel to the Dodgers, where he'll inevitably experience a revitalization to his career.
As far as additions to the roster, they've been few and uninspiring for Milwaukee through this point in the winter. By that I mean, they signed a catcher that totally exists named Luke Maile as their most notable acquisition. The Brewers only rank somewhat favorably here because their transactions to subtract talent have been narrowly less egregious than some of their NL Central contemporaries. So congratulations, I guess.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals strike me as the Central squad most poised to execute a couple standard signings to save face with their fans in a placeholder season that could precede a more aggressive revamp in 2022. St. Louis has remained deliberate in its pursuit of free agents Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright, a duo with 37 years of combined tenure in the Cardinals organization--yes, that's the real number. Either could ultimately return to the Cardinals after exhausting their options in the market, but that the team hasn't rushed into any reunions yet suggests anything is possible pertaining to where these Cards might fall.
Back-to-back Gold Glove Award recipient Kolten Wong is gone, as the team declined a $12.5 million option on the athletic second baseman and leadoff hitter. Whether he returns on a re-worked deal is up for speculation, though reading the tea leaves, it seems unlikely St. Louis will prioritize Wong above Wainwright and Molina. The Cardinals also non-tendered reliever John Brebbia, who was quickly scooped up on an MLB deal by the Giants despite his ongoing recovery from Tommy John surgery. Brebbia was one of the team's more reliable bullpen arms in 2019, so the refusal to tender him a Major League contract based on uncertainty with his return date signals just where the team is with its payroll, at this point.
If St. Louis heads to spring training without Waino and Yadi, it would be difficult not to shift the team's apathy ranking higher than this. Anticipating the Cardinals will at least do something to fill these holes, they stand right in the middle at the third spot, for now.
2. Chicago Cubs
Theo Epstein got out at the perfect time. He didn't wait around as a lame duck through a process that sees the Cubs' ownership prioritizing savings over aggressively bolstering a capable roster that just won the division a year ago. Instead, Epstein handed the reins over to his lieutenant Jed Hoyer to serve as the grim reaper of competitive baseball on the North Side.
Presumably on orders, Hoyer dumped ace starter Yu Darvish for Zach Davies and a bunch of teenagers, which saves the Cubs a bundle in future salary. The trade was so transparently a salary dump that the Cubs didn't even demand any of the Padres' top prospects in the deal.
Elsewhere, Chicago non-tendered slugger Kyle Schwarber, defensive standout Albert Almora andMVP-vote-getter Ryan Tepera. All were capable contributors to the roster. The team also declined a $25 million option on Jon Lester, instead paying him a whopping $10 million buyout. He's not a $15 million per year pitcher, at this point, so it's hard to argue with that decision--but man, that's a huge buyout.
It's been a brutal off-season for those who care about the state of the Cubs roster. But until they sell-off Willson Contreras and Kris Bryant for Giordano's gift certificates, not even the Cubs can reach the impressive degree of apathy toward winning as our top team on the list.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
What I can appreciate about the Pirates is there's really no pretense, here. There won't be so much as a fleeting thought given to the notion of contending in 2021 for what should be the singular worst team in Major League Baseball this coming season.
Why such confidence in Pittsburgh's futility? The Pirates were already the worst team in MLB last season when they finished with a record of 19-41. And well, that team had Josh Bell. This one won't. The Pirates traded their best hitter to the Nationals for some prospects, hoping to kickstart a rebuilding process that will take years to see through.
They're still tearing things down to the studs in Pittsburgh, and the light at the end of the tunnel is not yet visible. If not for the general lack of prioritizing wins from the rest of the NL Central, the Pirates would have a chance to be spectacularly bad in 2021. As it is, they'll probably land closer to your standard basement-dwelling tank operation.